Economic and Financial Analysis

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PC ReportPeter Cox has been building economic models of the media industry for over 30 years not only for clients but also for the thousands of executives that have attended his presentations at conferences and seminars

Cox Media believe that the keys to their success in building highly predictive financial models lies not in their complexity and size but in the accuracy of the assumptions.

It is essential to be able to identify what are the crucial assumptions, to be able to determine a realistic basis and to assess the credibility of the people involved.

It is only the industry experience of Cox Media that provides reliable assumptions. This is lacking in the inexperienced young graduates building models for banks and stockbrokers.

And most importantly the independence of Cox Media lets the figures tell the story rather than trying to substantiate a preordained outcome for a float or investment. The outcome may not be what the client envisaged but it may save his business or investment.

Cox Media have extensive experience in building financial models for the industry that have been highly predictive of outcomes including:

  • The investment research and analysis credibility of Cox Media was established by publicly predicting the financial collapse of the commercial television networks in the late 80’s.
  • Writing a paper “The Television Crisis: profits and programming” that was published on the front page of the Australian Financial Review on September 27, 1985 and forecast the financial collapse of at least two networks.
  • Writing another paper “Concern over the profitability of radio” which was again published in the Financial Review in 1987 which forecast the economic turmoil in the industry.
  • In 1989 Published a study “Network Television Stations: What are they really worth?” which analysed the financial, marketing and operating performance of the networks and accurately predicted their financial collapse.
  • Produced a report “Regional Television: The impact of aggregation” which developed extensive financial models demonstrating to the government the financial crisis confronting regional television operators resulting in substantial Government assistance.
  • Commissioned by The Department of Transport and Communications in 1990 to develop an independent model on the effect the introduction of Pay TV in Australia would have on the commercial television industry. This report was instrumental in changing the
  • Government decision to favour introducing Pay TV.
  • Built financial models for the early Pay TV operators that correctly predicted that Australis Media would go into liquidation.

In more recent years financial models prepared by Cox Media have included:

  • Analysed the gambling industry and provided financial models demonstrating the threats to the racing industry from other forms of gambling.
  • Built detailed business models for the rollout of broadband cable and wireless systems.
  • Created financial models valuing stations in the radio industry.
  • Developed business models for a dot com investment for a major Australian company advising against the investment and saving the company tens of millions of dollars.
  • Developed a report and financial models comparing High Definition TV and multichannelling for digital Television for a major Australian bank.
  • Provided expert witness evidence for several media court cases.
  • Developed substantial submissions and economic analysis of the International and Australian media markets for submissions by the Australian Association of National Advertisers to the Government.

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